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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 54

Houston Texans 26 – San Francisco 49ers 15

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SF 1, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP