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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 20:20 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

GB
47.7%
PIT
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.186 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

GB

Dontayvion Wicks WR Out Calf
Lukas Van Ness DE Out Foot
Brandon McManus K Questionable Quadricep
Devonte Wyatt DT Questionable Knee
Christian Watson WR Questionable Knee
Warren Brinson DT Questionable Hamstring
Matthew Golden WR Questionable Hip

PIT

Scott Miller WR Out Finger
Malik Harrison LB Questionable Knee
Zach Frazier C Questionable Calf
Will Howard QB Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 35
–
PIT 25

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:46 FG PIT (8:46) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. GB 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 05:12 TD GB (5:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 12:23 FG PIT (12:23) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. GB 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 05:56 FG PIT (5:56) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. GB 7 – PIT 9
  • Q2 00:37 TD PIT (:37) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 4-D.Metcalf for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – PIT 15
  • Q3 08:54 TD GB (8:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 83-S.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – PIT 16
  • Q3 05:39 FG PIT (5:39) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. GB 14 – PIT 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – PIT 19
  • Q4 11:04 TD GB (11:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 28 – PIT 19
  • Q4 05:31 FG GB (5:31) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 32 – PIT 19
  • Q4 04:02 FG GB (4:02) 17-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 35 – PIT 19
  • Q4 02:16 TD PIT (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-R.Wilson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Enagbare]. GB 35 – PIT 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (13:37) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to PIT 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-K.Williams to PIT 20 for 5 yards (16-B.Melton).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 20 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 63%

    (8:46) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to GB 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-K.Nixon MUFFS catch, recovered by GB-39-Z.Anderson at GB 18.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%

    (14:55) 17-B.McManus 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 77%

    (12:23) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:17) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to PIT 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-K.Williams pushed ob at PIT 36 for 16 yards (42-M.Orzech).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (5:56) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to PIT 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 85-K.Williams.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:12) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 23 for 3 yards (46-C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-20-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 94%

    (10:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at PIT 10 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%

    (5:39) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:09) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 40 for 11 yards (44-C.Bruener). PENALTY on PIT-51-N.Herbig, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 40.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 44 for 6 yards (44-C.Bruener).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (5:31) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (4:02) 17-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to GB 40 for 14 yards (99-B.Sorrell).