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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to PIT 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 85-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.81 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP