Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

(11:17) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to PIT 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-K.Williams pushed ob at PIT 36 for 16 yards (42-M.Orzech).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model