Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 23 for 3 yards (46-C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-20-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model