Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

(3:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to GB 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-K.Nixon MUFFS catch, recovered by GB-39-Z.Anderson at GB 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.61 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model