Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 40 for 11 yards (44-C.Bruener). PENALTY on PIT-51-N.Herbig, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.37 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model