4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to GB 40 for 14 yards (99-B.Sorrell).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -1.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model