4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 9

Green Bay Packers 29 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP