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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

CLE
19.1%
NE
80.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Drake Maye (NE) +0.157 vs Dillon Gabriel (CLE) -0.136 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CLE

David Njoku TE Questionable Knee
Adin Huntington DT Questionable Concussion
Shedeur Sanders QB Questionable Back

NE

Kyle Dugger S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
NE 32

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:49 FG NE (8:49) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. CLE 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 05:15 TD CLE (5:15) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. 8-D.Gabriel pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – NE 3
  • Q2 07:44 FG NE (7:44) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. CLE 7 – NE 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG NE (:02) 36-A.Borregales 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. CLE 7 – NE 9
  • Q3 09:15 TD NE (9:15) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 15
  • Q3 06:45 TD NE (6:45) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 22
  • Q3 00:59 TD NE (:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 29
  • Q4 09:28 TD CLE (9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – NE 30
  • Q4 04:11 SAF NE (4:11) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on CLE-8-D.Gabriel, Intentional Grounding, 2 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. CLE 13 – NE 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (8:49) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to CLE 12, Center-47-J.Ashby. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 19 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler; 15-M.Mapu). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 19.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NE 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

    (11:26) 25-A.Szmyt 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (7:44) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 25-M.Jones to NE 34 for 8 yards (5-R.Jenkins; 33-R.Hickman).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NE 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%

    (:02) 36-A.Borregales 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:20) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to NE 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. PENALTY on NE-39-R.Grant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 33.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:29) 44-H.Fannin right end to CLE 26 for 2 yards (2-H.Landry; 14-R.Spillane).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (12:18) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (0-C.Gonzalez).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 15 yards to NE 26, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:25) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 34 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane; 7-C.Davis).