Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 6

(6:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 25-M.Jones to NE 34 for 8 yards (5-R.Jenkins; 33-R.Hickman).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.43 EP
53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model