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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 61

New England Patriots 6 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.33 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model