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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 24

New England Patriots 6 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) 36-A.Borregales 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.73 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model