4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

1-7 HC Aaron Glenn
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

3-5 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
49.3%
CIN
50.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Joe Flacco (CIN) -0.083 vs Justin Fields (NYJ) -0.032 EPA/dropback
  • CIN on 3 more days rest than NYJ

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22 15–29
–
CIN 23 16–30
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYJ

Tyrod Taylor QB Out Knee
Josh Reynolds WR Out Hip
Kene Nwangwu RB Out Concussion
Jay Tufele DT Out Knee
Sauce Gardner CB Out Concussion
Stone Smartt TE Out Quadricep
Garrett Wilson WR Out Knee
Cam Jones LB Out Hip
Quincy Williams LB Questionable Shoulder
Breece Hall RB Questionable Knee
Mason Taylor TE Questionable Quadricep

CIN

Cedric Johnson DE Out Calf
Cameron Sample DE Doubtful Knee
Marco Wilson CB Doubtful Hamstring
Matt Lee C Doubtful Knee
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 39
–
CIN 38

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 32 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 FG CIN (10:17) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. NYJ 0 – CIN 3
  • Q1 05:38 TD CIN (5:38) 16-J.Flacco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CIN 9
  • Q2 12:17 FG NYJ (12:17) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 3 – CIN 10
  • Q2 10:52 TD CIN (10:52) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – CIN 16
  • Q2 05:23 TD NYJ (5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – CIN 17
  • Q2 01:22 TD CIN (1:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 30-C.Brown for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – CIN 23
  • Q2 00:04 FG NYJ (:04) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 13 – CIN 24
  • Q3 06:15 FG NYJ (6:15) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 16 – CIN 24
  • Q3 02:41 TD CIN (2:41) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine left guard for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – CIN 30
  • Q4 14:21 TD NYJ (14:21) 20-B.Hall left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 22 – CIN 31
  • Q4 10:24 TD CIN (10:24) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 24 – CIN 37
  • Q4 08:01 TD NYJ (8:01) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 30 – CIN 38
  • Q4 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) 20-B.Hall pass short right to 85-M.Taylor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 38 – CIN 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (10:17) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:20) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (49-B.Carter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:02) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CIN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams ran ob at NYJ 26 for 17 yards (37-P.Jules). ** Injury Update: CIN-37-P.Jules has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%

    (12:17) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%

    (5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:04) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 48%

    (12:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. ** Injury Update: CIN-44-D.Knight has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:58) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 36 for 12 yards (37-P.Jules; 38-D.Ivey). PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (6:15) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%

    (8:41) 7-J.Fields pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert to CIN 27 for 24 yards (49-B.Carter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 21 yards (25-T.Brooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).

    See the full breakdown →