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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 7

New York Jets 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(:04) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model