Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams ran ob at NYJ 26 for 17 yards (37-P.Jules). ** Injury Update: CIN-37-P.Jules has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model