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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 28

New York Jets 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP