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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 43

New York Jets 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. ** Injury Update: CIN-44-D.Knight has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP