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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Jets 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP