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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2025-10-27 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

WAS
30.2%
KC
69.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.204 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 22
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

WAS

Matt Gay K Out Back
Colson Yankoff TE Out Hamstring
Jayden Daniels QB Out Hamstring
Daron Payne DT Questionable Toe

KC

Josh Simmons T Out Not injury related - personal matter
Trey Smith G Doubtful Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 7
–
KC 28

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:49 TD KC (5:49) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 01:04 TD WAS (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 17-T.McLaurin. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – KC 7
  • Q3 10:19 TD KC (10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – KC 13
  • Q3 03:26 TD KC (3:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – KC 20
  • Q4 07:59 TD KC (7:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-J.Newton]. WAS 7 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:41) 60-H.Nourzad and 74-J.Taylor reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 46 for 5 yards (20-Q.Martin; 54-B.Wagner).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 56%

    (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to KC 35 for 5 yards (35-J.Watson). (Virtual Measurement).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%

    (10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin [32-N.Bolton].

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

    (10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:19) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to KC 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-N.Remigio to KC 25 for 11 yards (35-P.Butler).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:59) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to KC 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-N.Remigio to KC 39 for 16 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on KC-31-J.Bassa, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 25.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:29) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 83-J.Lane to WAS 20 for 14 yards (31-J.Bassa).