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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 28

Washington Commanders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin [32-N.Bolton].

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.12 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model