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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 2

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model