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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 60-H.Nourzad and 74-J.Taylor reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 46 for 5 yards (20-Q.Martin; 54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.26 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model