Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 73

Washington Commanders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(8:19) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to KC 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-N.Remigio to KC 25 for 11 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.31 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model