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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 16:05 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
65.9%
NO
34.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.117 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.212 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 27
–
NO 20
Projected margin: TB by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TB

Haason Reddick LB Out Ankle
Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Fibula
Luke Haggard G Out Shoulder
Bucky Irving RB Out Foot
Vita Vea DT Questionable Foot

NO

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 23
–
NO 3

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:48 TD TB (6:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 98-A.Nelson at NO 3. 98-A.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-71-K.Banks, Illegal Formation, declined. TB 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 00:06 FG NO (:06) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. TB 7 – NO 3
  • Q3 10:12 TD TB (10:12) 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – NO 3
  • Q3 04:07 FG TB (4:07) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 17 – NO 3
  • Q4 14:08 FG TB (14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 20 – NO 3
  • Q4 09:32 FG TB (9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 23 – NO 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (2:49) 32-K.Kroeger punts 33 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (7:28) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NO 1 for no gain (58-C.Rumph; 93-N.Shepherd).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%

    (4:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 33 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to NO 26, Center-86-E.Deckers. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 34 for 8 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (10:12) 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:31) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to TB 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-K.Johnson to TB 45 for 8 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%

    (4:07) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

    (14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (23-T.Smith).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 71%

    (9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (4:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Stoll.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to NO 19, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right guard to NO 30 for 4 yards (8-S.Dennis).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 57%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 10-B.Cooks ran ob at TB 31 for 11 yards (21-B.Morrison).