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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 10-B.Cooks ran ob at TB 31 for 11 yards (21-B.Morrison).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.71 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP