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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to NO 19, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model