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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model