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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP