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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NO
25.6%
SEA
74.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Spencer Rattler (NO): -0.247 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 19
–
SEA 27
Projected margin: SEA by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NO

Chase Young DE Out Calf
Dillon Radunz G Out Toe
Trevor Penning G Questionable Toe
Trey Palmer WR Questionable Hamstring
Taliese Fuaga T Questionable Knee
Devaughn Vele WR Questionable Hip

SEA

Julian Love S Doubtful Hamstring
Zach Charbonnet RB Doubtful Foot
Devon Witherspoon CB Doubtful Knee
Nick Emmanwori S Doubtful Ankle
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 13
–
SEA 44

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:54 TD SEA (9:54) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 07:51 TD SEA (7:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – SEA 13
  • Q1 04:27 TD SEA (4:27) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 0 – SEA 20
  • Q2 12:51 FG NO (12:51) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 3 – SEA 21
  • Q2 11:22 TD SEA (11:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – SEA 27
  • Q2 07:46 TD SEA (7:46) 74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – SEA 34
  • Q2 01:34 FG SEA (1:34) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NO 3 – SEA 38
  • Q2 00:03 FG NO (:03) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 6 – SEA 38
  • Q3 11:33 FG SEA (11:33) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NO 6 – SEA 41
  • Q3 04:42 FG SEA (4:42) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NO 6 – SEA 44
  • Q4 15:00 TD NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 88-J.Stoll for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – SEA 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 47%

    (12:26) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to 41-A.Kamara.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:58) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 23-D.Bell, Center-49-Z.Wood, recovered by NO-53-J.Ford at NO 11.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (12:51) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:44) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to SEA 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 24 for 11 yards (28-D.Stutsman).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 76%

    (2:53) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%

    (1:34) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

    (11:33) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 51 yards to SEA 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 35 for 8 yards (28-D.Stutsman).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (4:42) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to NO 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 44 for 40 yards (81-E.Saubert).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%

    (11:14) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 22-R.Shaheed INTERCEPTED by 1-D.Kendrick at SEA 25. 1-D.Kendrick to SEA 25 for no gain (88-J.Stoll).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:01) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:46) 32-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to SEA 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.