Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 13 – Seattle Seahawks 44

(8:01) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.00 EP
59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model