Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 13 – Seattle Seahawks 44

(2:46) 32-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to SEA 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.61 EP
53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -2.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model