Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(7:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.64 EP
56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model