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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 41 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model