4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LV
35.6%
WAS
64.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • WAS on 4 more days rest than LV
  • Geno Smith (LV): -0.013 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LV 22
–
WAS 25
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

LV

Decamerion Richardson CB Questionable Hamstring

WAS

Noah Brown WR Out Groin
John Bates TE Out Groin
Jayden Daniels QB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 24
–
WAS 41

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:56 TD WAS (11:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 09:49 FG LV (9:49) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – WAS 7
  • Q2 10:00 FG WAS (10:00) 16-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. LV 3 – WAS 10
  • Q2 04:26 TD LV (4:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 1-T.Tucker for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – WAS 10
  • Q2 03:42 TD WAS (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – WAS 16
  • Q2 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. LV 10 – WAS 20
  • Q3 09:54 TD WAS (9:54) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs. LV 10 – WAS 26
  • Q3 03:07 TD WAS (3:07) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – WAS 33
  • Q4 13:03 TD LV (13:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 1-T.Tucker for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – WAS 34
  • Q4 03:45 TD LV (3:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 22 – WAS 34
  • Q4 02:12 TD WAS (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-L.McCaffrey for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White]. LV 24 – WAS 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (9:49) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:33) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to WAS 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane pushed ob at WAS 24 for 7 yards (87-M.Mayer).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (1:25) 16-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:27) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to WAS 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to LV 43 for 25 yards (87-M.Mayer). LV-87-M.Mayer was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-6-N.Igbinoghene, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%

    (10:00) 16-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:00) 7-G.Smith left guard to LV 41 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:36) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to WAS 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to WAS 35 for 10 yards (26-D.Porter).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:51) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to WAS 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:04) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to LV 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-T.Tucker to LV 36 for 5 yards (58-J.Magee).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:54) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-26-D.Porter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:34) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to WAS 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to WAS 37 for 14 yards (54-B.Jackson).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 50%

    (:21) 7-G.Smith left guard to WAS 40 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner; 4-F.Luvu).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 20 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 60%

    (6:55) 10-T.Way punts 32 yards to LV 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-34-A.Hamilton.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube left guard to WAS 49 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).