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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to WAS 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane pushed ob at WAS 24 for 7 yards (87-M.Mayer).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model