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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to WAS 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to WAS 35 for 10 yards (26-D.Porter).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model