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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 28

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 16-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.51 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model