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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 49
Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Washington Commanders 34
What Actually Happened
(4:52) (Shotgun) 23-D.Laube left guard to WAS 49 for no gain (4-F.Luvu).
The Three Options
GO
+1.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.38 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
KICK
-0.82 EP
- 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT
-0.17 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
