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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Las Vegas Raiders
4th & 1 at the 43
Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Washington Commanders 34
What Actually Happened
(:21) 7-G.Smith left guard to WAS 40 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner; 4-F.Luvu).
The Three Options
GO
+1.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP
KICK
-0.62 EP
- 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
- 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
