Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Washington Commanders 27

(5:34) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to WAS 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-J.Lane to WAS 37 for 14 yards (54-B.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model