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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

1-2 HC Raheem Morris
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

1-2 HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2025-09-21 · 13:00 ET Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ATL
54.8%
CAR
45.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 24 17–31
–
CAR 23 16–30
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Jamal Agnew WR Out Groin
A.J. Terrell CB Out Hamstring
Casey Washington WR Out Concussion
Mike Ford CB Questionable Groin

CAR

Tershawn Wharton DT Out Hamstring
Patrick Jones II LB Out Hamstring
Xavier Legette WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 0
–
CAR 30

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:52 TD CAR (6:52) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 05:29 FG CAR (5:29) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. ATL 0 – CAR 10
  • Q3 11:46 TD CAR (11:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Smith-Wade at ATL 11. 26-C.Smith-Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 0 – CAR 16
  • Q3 04:52 FG CAR (4:52) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. ATL 0 – CAR 20
  • Q4 10:51 TD CAR (10:51) 73-B.Walton reported in as eligible. 5-R.Dowdle left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CAR 26
  • Q4 03:45 FG CAR (3:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. ATL 0 – CAR 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%

    (10:54) 39-J.Romo 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 61%

    (8:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (3-J.Bates).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 68%

    (3:33) 39-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (:10) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to ATL 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 34-R.McCloud.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 50%

    (10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (5:29) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 25 yards to CAR 31, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:10) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 34-R.McCloud to ATL 21 for no gain (29-A.Evans).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:32) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ATL 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 34-R.McCloud to ATL 14 for no gain (81-D.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 34-R.McCloud.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (4:52) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%

    (1:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR 16. 2-M.Jackson to ATL 30 for 54 yards (34-R.McCloud).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (10:51) 73-B.Walton reported in as eligible. 5-R.Dowdle left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 1-D.Mooney.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (3:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →