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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 39-J.Romo 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model