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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model