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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (3-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.86 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model