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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 27 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.24 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model