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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR 16. 2-M.Jackson to ATL 30 for 54 yards (34-R.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model