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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 39-J.Romo 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model