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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 34-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model