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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model